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Thursday, October 20, 2005

CRIME and ABORTION - The 4th of the 5-Part Series

This is the fourth in a five-part series. Upcoming topics include how five renowned Ph.D. criminologists/economists can't all be wrong and how Freakonomics author Steven Levitt ignored another major factor boosting crime, one which may have been a result of legalized abortion...

Links to Parts One through Three

"...some details are misreported, misexplained, misread and/or misanalyzed."



3) The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) shows that, after spiking in 1980 (to 596.6) parallel with the overall crime rate, the violent crime rate then jumped even more drastically, surpassing 1980's rate every year from 1986 through 1997, when it was 610.8. The rate hit an all-time high of 758.1 per 100,000 population in 1991.

In 1991, there were 2 million fewer potential criminals aged 18 through 21. In 1996 and 1997, there were 7.9 and 9.4 million fewer potential criminals aged 18 to 27, respectively. Had abortion truly affected crime rates as presumed, the overall and violent crime rates in 1991, '96 and '97 should have decreased accordingly but clearly didn't.

4) Though the murder rate did decline since 1991, it had spiked in 1991 (from under 9 per 100,000 population between 1984-’89) to a high of 10.6 (higher than Great Depression levels), despite having 2 million fewer potential criminals aged 18 through 21 (only 745,000 of which would have been 18). The rate remained above 9 from 1989 through 1994, years when there were 700,000 and 5.2 million fewer 18 to 24 year olds, respectively, thanks to legalized abortion.

Murder in small cities in some years also contradicts the abortion/crime theory:
"[A] comparison of the data from 2002 and 2003 showed increases in the number of murders in all other population groups labeled city. Cities with 100,000 to 249,999 [Table 12, Group II] inhabitants experienced an increase in murders of 6.8 percent…The 2-year trend data indicated that the number of murders in cities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants increased 20.0 percent from 2002 to 2003…[Table 12, Group VI]"
There were 24,549,216 people in "Group II" cities, and 19,422,822 in "Group VI" cities in 2003. That’s 8.4 percent and 6.7 percent of the total 2003 population (290,809,777), respectively.

Due to Roe, the nation had a total of 18.8 million fewer 18 to 33 year olds in 2003.

Thus Group II cities (100,000 to 249,999 people) shared a total reduction of 1.6 million fewer potential criminals that year due to legalized abortion—but also a single-year murder rate increase of 6.8 percent. Another 1.3 million fewer lived among all Group VI cities (under 10,000) where the murder rate jumped 20 percent that year.

Of course, the "missing persons" count is a cumulative effect and the murder rate jumps are single-year incidences, but the cumulative effect is notable. Why?

Each "big abortion year" (1.5 million or more annually) of 1980 through 1992 theoretically most cut criminal-age population starting in the subsequent 16-18 years. If abortion were even partly responsible for reducing crime, crime's decline should be pronounced and steady from 1996 through 2002 (technically we'd track through this 2010)—when there were respectively between 10.9 million and 20.4 million fewer people aged 16 through 26.

Because "the big abortion years" most decreased the criminal-age population in the 1996-2002 period, 2003 should have been a banner year in the "war on crime" everywhere, but it wasn't.

5) Also while "the big abortion years" most decreased 1996-2002 criminal-age populations, the drug arrest rate peaked in the consecutive years 1995, 1996 and 1997 (up from 400 to 590-600) despite having 9.4 million, 10.9 million and 12.5 million fewer potential criminals aged 16 to 27, respectively. The abortion/crime theory indicates that this rate should have been dropping since at least 1989, if not 1986 when those who would have been born in 1970 would have turned 16.

6) The percentage of heroin/cocaine possession arrests spiked up from about 10 percent in 1980 to 32 percent in 1989 (the year that crime rates should have started dropping). These percentages remained at high levels (30 percent +/-) from 1990 through 1998, the year there were 9.4 million fewer people aged 19 through 28. Also in 1998, the percentage of heroin/cocaine dealer arrests remained higher than pre-1987 levels, after having increased from 5 percent in 1980 to about 19 percent from 1989 through 1998.

7) The U.S. prison population stayed under 175,000 from 1925 until 1973, broke the 300,000 prisoner mark in 1980, then climbed drastically to 1.13 million state penitentiary prisoners by 1997, despite the population having 9.4 million fewer 18-27 year olds because of abortion. We rose most steeply to the 600,000-prisoner mark by 1989. That year, this rate presumably should have started dropping due to abortion, yet it did and continued to do the exact opposite.

Others have written extensively about the other factors affecting prison rates (e.g., legislation, enforcement, wars, drugs, poverty, education). I don't ignore these factors. But neither can it be ignored that, in the eight years from 1989 to 1997, this prisoner count climbed approximately 88 percent, or 11 percent a year, while by 1997, the country had 9.4 million total fewer 18-27 year olds. Compare that with a 2.4 percent average annual growth rate of prisoner counts for the 50-year period 1925 - 1975 (from under 100,000 prisoners to 200,000). For about 48 years prior to the time of Roe v. Wade, prison populations were not a huge problem needing paring down either.

Put another way: it took the U.S. just under 50 years to increase the prison population by 100 percent (from under 100,000 to 200,000). It took us eight more years to reach 340 percent of 1925's prisoner count ('75-'83; 400,000), nine more years to reach 780 percent of 1925's number ('84-'92; 800,000) and five more years to reach 1,150 percent of 1925's prison population (1.13 million). This, after losing 13 percent of what would have been 2002's population (331,759,000 = 43.4 million abortions plus actual 2002 population of 288,368,698).

It seems apparent that abortion at least isn't very responsible for making a serious dent in the prison population.

8) For twenty-two years from 1978 to 2000, the number of prisoners under death sentence rose steadily from 482 to 3,601 (647% or a 29.4 percent average annual increase). Yet by 2000, there were 12.5 million fewer people aged 19 through 30 due to legal abortion. We cumulatively had lost about 22 percent of what would have been 2000's 19-30 year old population (56 million = 12.5 million abortions plus 36,318,000 [2000 population for 20-29 year olds] plus 7 million total for 19 and 30 year olds).

Why was there greater and more violent crime, some warranting death sentences, when abortion is theorized to have helped reduced all that? Could the spikes in murders and increase in death row inmates be partly a result of higher immigration? Drug wars, especially crack? Gangs? The "super-predator" scare? Could it be partly because those who were being born being were "more criminally-inclined?" Did abortion eliminate those less criminally inclined? Are those who were born "less wanted" or "more disadvantaged" after they were born than abortion's promise led us to believe, thus committing worse crimes? Is the increase in death row inmates greatly due to increased vigilance and tougher laws?

The answer to all of the above could be "yes." And even the hardest pro-choice advocate honestly can see the possibility that, after legally valuing life inside the womb for over one-hundred years, once we then devalued human life that way, the value of any human life came into question.

There aren't easy answers, if any. These examples point out more difficulties in assigning credit to abortion for lowering crime.

The fifth and final segment tomorrow.

Links to all segments found here. 
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NATIONAL REVIEW Online's The Corner ~ Kathryn Jean Lopez links to Ap blog, 1/22/07

Associated Press/San Francisco Chronicle: Banno On Boxer and the Illegal Abortion Deaths Urban Legend

San Diego Union Tribune: more Boxer Urban-Legend-Debunk coverage

Ellen Goodman retraction impetus: Aa blog initiates The Straight Dope coverage...and is listed in National Review Senior Editor Ramesh Ponnuru's book The Party of Death, p. 255, Chap. 3 Endnote #11,   4/2006

NY Daily News: "Atheist's Site Is All The Rave

"After Abortion, by Emily Peterson and Annie Banno, two women who had abortions in the 1970s, ...tries to avoid the political tug-of-war that tends to come with this turf. They concentrate instead on discussing the troubling personal effects of abortion on the mothers." ~ Eric Scheske, Godspy contributing editor, in NC Register's "Signs of Life in the Blogosphere", 2/2006

"Godbloggers could, in the best of worlds, become the new apologists...[including] laymen with day jobs: Emily Peterson and Annie Banno, for instance, at the blog After Abortion..."~ Jonathan V. Last, The Weekly Standard online editor, in First Things's "God on the Internet", 12/2005

Amy Welborn, at BeliefNet, links to AfterAbortion blog's Crime & Abortion Series

Catholic News Service: Silent counterprotest at the March For Choice

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Feeling Really Bad?: Call
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Suicide Hope Lines: U.S.A. (by state) or call 1-800-Suicide (784-2433)

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George & Linda Zallie, Stacy's parents, "assisting women who made the difficult choice of ending their pregnancy in finding nonjudgmental help" for suicidal feelings.

For immediate help, call tollfree, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week: national, confidential, post-abortion-recovery hotlines:
1-877-HOPE-4-ME or
1-866-482-5433 or

...more help below...

"I would now like to say a special word to women who have had an abortion...[many are] aware of the many factors which may have influenced your decision, and [do] not doubt that it was a painful and even shattering decision. The wound in your heart may not yet have healed. Certainly what happened was and remains terribly wrong. But do not give in to discouragement and do not lose hope. Try rather to understand what happened and face it honestly. If you have not already done so, give yourselves over with humility and trust to repentance. The Father of mercies is ready to give you his forgiveness and his peace...You will come to understand that nothing is definitively lost and you will also be able to ask forgiveness from your child..."

Hope after Abortion
Ideas for Healing
Rachel's Vineyard Retreats
(non-Christians, even non-religious do attend; they also have interdenominational retreats designed expressly for people of any religion or no religion)
Abortion Recovery
"Entering Canaan" - a ministry of reverence for women and men who suffer following an abortion
Lumina - Hope & Healing After Abortion
Option Line
Books that help
(includes non-religious Post Abortion recovery books)
In Our Midst
For MEN - Resources List
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Regional & local resources
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After Abortion
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"Do As We Say, Republicans, Not As We Do" - All 8 Parts

Why NOT Hillary?

  1. Abortion Rhetoric Backpedal
  2. Chicago Tribune: "Our hero: Hillary Clinton, the last truth bender"
  3. Rapper Timbaland's $800K and "Ho's" lyrics
  4. Criminal "fugitive", media-ignored Hsu
  5. $5K per Kid
  6. Criminal Berger
  7. "I remember landing under sniper fire...we just ran with our heads down."...
  8. ...and other false claims on her Foreign Policy "chops"

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Obama On Abortion: A Summary 1990-2009

1) Obama Is 2nd-Highest-Paid Politician by Fannie Mae, Taking $126,346 in only 4 years as Senator; Now Derides GOP/Bush for Allowing Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac To Do Business, When It Was Democrat Presidents Bill Clinton & Jimmy Carter Who Passed The Law Requiring Fannie & Freddie To Give Out Bad Subprime Loans To Those Who Couldn't Afford Them, Which Caused The Entire Financial Meltdown … 2) Jim Johnson (Obama VEEP vetter and former Fannie Mae executive who made millions there) Backpedal … 3) Obama's hiring, connection, support of ACORN, which supported that very law and whose staff have been involved in voter fraud … 4) Rezko's Favor A "Boneheaded" Mistake … 5) Jeremiah Wright Backpedal … 6) Fr. Michael Fleger Backpedal … 7) NAFTA Backpedal … 8) Campaign Financing Backpedal … 9) Mr. "Negotiates-With-Terrorist-States" … 10) Bittergate … 11) Hamas' Chief Political Adviser Hopes BO Will Win Election … 12) Banning Handguns Backpedal … 13) Who Exactly Are "The Rich" He's Going to Sock it to? … 14) Flag Pin Backpedal … 15) Once Open to School Vouchers That Work, Now Deadset Against … 16) Now OK with residual force in Iraq...up to 50,000 troops. … 17) First voted against a law protecting babies who survive an abortion procedure, then lied saying he didn't, then finally forced to admit that he did vote to deny such born babies protection. 18) … "For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country." ~ MO

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FREEDOM OF RELIGION, FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF THE PRESS NOTICES: From its inception in 2005 forward, the postings on this site are the co-bloggers' own personal opinions, observations and research, do not reflect or represent the views of any employer(s), past, present or future, nor do/will they relate in any manner to said employer(s) or their businesses at any point in time. The writings expressed herein are protected expression by virtue of the First Amendment of the United States of America and by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, in particular Articles 18 and 19, signed by the U.S.A. in 1948:

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