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Wednesday, November 02, 2016
"Almost An Entirely Media-Created Fiction" and "Trump's Women Problem Has Disappeared"
"...there's no evidence that the Never Trump Republicans, or the barrage of media coverage about them, is having any impact whatsoever on rank-and-file Republican voters. [my emphasis]
"The latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll shows that 88% of Republicans say they support Trump. That's identical to the share of Republicans who said they backed Mitt Romney at roughly the same point in the 2012 IBD/TIPP tracking poll. And the 2012 poll was of a two-man race, while IBD has been conducting polls this time around that include Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
"Trump's support among GOP voters has increased 6 points since the IBD/TIPP tracking poll started on Oct. 19, when it stood at 82%.
"Further evidence that the media's "Never Trump" fixation is misguided: Only 3% of Republicans say they are supporting Clinton this year, compared with 4% who in 2012 said they would vote for Obama.
"How about among conservatives? Both Trump and Romney were getting 73% backing from self-described conservatives at comparable points in the poll. And Trump is currently doing slightly better than Romney among moderates — 35% to Romney's 33%.
"To be sure, we have our share of disagreements with Trump on many issues, and never thought he was the best — nor nearly the most conservative — candidate among the Republicans who ran for the party's nomination. The mainstream media, however, keep pushing the Trump-is-having-trouble-with-Republicans story line mainly as a way to convince voters that he is doomed.
"In other words, it's not actual reporting, but more like wishful thinking." [my emphasis]
"Across the last six nights of tracking (for an adequate sample size), pure independents have backed Trump over Clinton by 55-23 percent."
"One dynamic related to the tightened Clinton-Trump race is a decline in support for Johnson (compared with steadier support, albeit inimal, for Stein). In early September, 11 percent of registered voters, and 9 percent of likely voters supported Johnson, vs. only 4 and 3 percent, respectively, now. Stein has held at 3 and 2 percent, respectively. This appears to have aided Trump more than Clinton. In September, 11 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning likely voters supported Johnson; that’s at 4 percent now, down 7 points, as Trump has consolidated in this group. Leaned Democrats, by contrast, have shifted away from Johnson by just 3 points, from 5 to 2 percent."
Turnout is still critical, no matter what the polls say. If you don't vote for anyone for President of the United States, you have no right to complain.
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